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CIRCUIT: Causal Inference for Resilient Cities and Urban Integrated Transport

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  • Project Team:
    • Prof. Brian Caulfield – Principal Investigator, TCD (Civil Engineering)
    • Dr. Abhilash Chandra Singh – Co-Investigator, TCD (Civil Engineering)
    • Dr. Afaq Khattak – Research Fellow, TCD (Civil Engineering)

  • Funding Agency:

    • Sustainable Energy Authority of Ireland (SEAI) under Research, Development and Demonstration (RD&D) Programme

  • Funding Duration:

    • 2026-2030

  • Location:

    • Dublin, Ireland

  • Theme:

    • Transport, Energy, Environment

  • Description:

    • Transport and residential energy consumption are major contributors to greenhouse gas emissions in Ireland. As the country progresses towards its climate targets, there is an increasing need to understand how changes in travel behavior, household activities, and energy consumption influence one another. Traditional transport and energy models often examine these sectors independently, which limits their ability to capture the complex relationships between mobility choices and household energy demand.

      The CIRCUIT project aims to develop an integrated Transport–Energy–Environment framework to assess the interdependencies between transport behavior, household energy demand, and environmental outcomes, using advanced econometric methods, causal machine learning, and AI. The project will investigate how remote work, public transport accessibility, electric vehicle adoption, energy prices, and other behavioral changes affect energy consumption across transport and residential sectors. By applying causal inference methods, CIRCUIT seeks to identify the effects of different interventions and assess how these effects vary across socioeconomic groups and geographic areas. Through empirical applications across Irish cities, CIRCUIT aims to provide robust evidence to support effective transport and energy policies, promote low-carbon mobility, and contribute to the development of more sustainable and resilient urban environments.



  • Expected Project Benefits:

    • The CIRCUIT project is expected to provide valuable insights into the relationships between transport behavior, household energy demand, and environmental sustainability. Its integrated causal modelling framework will support the development and evaluation of policies that address transport and energy challenges simultaneously. In particular, the project aims to inform:

      • Sustainable transport strategies by quantifying how public transport station proximity, service frequency upgrades, and service interventions drive modal shift to curb transport emissions;

      • Residential energy policies by evaluating structural shifts, including remote work trends, energy price shocks, and daily household routines, reshaping residential energy footprints;

      • Electric mobility transitions by modeling EV adoption trajectories and mapping associated electricity demand spikes to ensure aligned grid and transport decarbonisation;

      • Equitable policy design by uncovering heterogeneous policy impacts across income brackets, household demographics, and geographic regions to ensure a just transition;

      • Scenario planning frameworks by establishing an integrated Transport–Energy–Environment framework to test alternative policy pathways and weigh their environmental and economic trade-offs





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